Three calendars got stacked on top of one percent.
PPI is the Producer Price Index. BLS, 8:30 a.m. ET, Thursday. It asks what sellers received. August: +0.4% from July, +5.4% from a year earlier, per CNN citing BLS. Energy +4.2% did most of the goods jump. Core, food and energy off, +0.2% month, +4.6% year. That is wholesale. It is not your grocery receipt.
CPI is the Consumer Price Index. Same agency, Friday. Economists, per CNN, expect the annual rate to ease to 3.3% from 3.4%, with a +0.4% month. We will not type Friday’s table on Thursday. PPI can hint. It does not print the CPI.
FOMC is Sept. 15–16. Chair Kevin Warsh. Twelve votes, a statement, a dots plot if they publish one. CME FedWatch moved a hike at that meeting to 70% from 64% after PPI. That is a futures market. It is not the minutes. Waller told CNN stubborn inflation would make him “consider” a hike and that he otherwise favors a hold. One governor is not the committee.
Oil at $106 is an input into the next PPI, not a vote. A $5,000 rally line is not a BLS series. Keep the folders labeled.
What this means for you
If you heard 5.4% and thought your rent moved this morning, you heard producers. If you needed the Fed, wait until next week. If you needed consumers, wait until 8:30 Friday.
Bottom line: PPI today. CPI tomorrow. FOMC next week. Only one of those has a number we can type.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.
