The jobs print was hot. The president wanted a cut.
On Truth Social Friday morning, Donald Trump cheered 162,000 August jobs — “breaking all estimates (except mine!)” — then ordered the Federal Reserve to lower rates because America is a “much stronger credit.” The closer: “LOWER THE RATE OR I’LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT.” He said that is “better than tariffs,” and that the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling already gave him the power.
He told the Fed Board and its “great new leader” — Chair Kevin Warsh — to “get smart” and “BE PATRIOTS.”
Asked about the post later, he doubled down.
The collision
FedWatch closed Friday at 58.4% for a hike, not a cut. Energy from the Iran war is still in diesel and gasoline. Waller spent Thursday asking for time on disinflation. CPI is September 11.
Trump’s theory is simple: a strong labor market is a better credit rating, so the policy rate should fall. The market’s theory is simpler: a hot labor market plus war oil is how you get another quarter-point up.
Warsh is Trump’s pick. He is also the person who has to walk into the September 15–16 meeting with a staff forecast, not a social post.
What this means for you
The Fed does not take orders from Truth Social. Presidents still talk. If you have a mortgage lock or a 401(k), the number that matters this month is still CPI, then the statement. A trade-stop threat is a second headline, not a rate decision.
Bottom line: he wants the lowest rate in the world on the same day traders raised hike odds. Those two rooms are not speaking the same language.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.