The embargo broke. The vote did not.
CPI is what urban consumers paid in August. BLS, 8:30 a.m. ET, Friday. Headline: +0.4% month, +3.4% year β in line with the forecast CNBC cited. Core, food and energy off: +0.3% month, a tenth hotter than expected, +2.4% year, down from 2.5%. Gasoline +3.9% did more than a third of the monthly all-items rise. Energy +16.3% year. Shelter +0.3% month, +3.0% year. Food +0.1% month, +2.7% year.
PPI was Thursday. Producers. +0.4% / +5.4%. That can rhyme. It does not fill in the consumer decimal. We already told you that. The consumer decimal is now in.
CME FedWatch, per CNBC after the print: near 90% odds of a quarter-point hike at FOMC Sept. 15β16. Going in, about 70%. Fed funds are still 3.50%β3.75%, where they have sat all year. Chair Kevin Warsh. Twelve votes. Nationwide now expects a hike. That is a forecast, not the statement. Yahoo, 1:13 p.m. ET: Dow 52,648.77. That is a tape, not the close.
What this means for you
If you heard 5.4% yesterday, you heard producers. If you heard 90%, you heard futures. If you needed the close, wait until 4. If you needed the Fed, wait until Wednesday.
Bottom line: CPI is 0.4 and 3.4. Core is a tenth hot. A hike is still a meeting.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.
