New York is off. The barrel is not.
Brent settled Friday at $96.28. On a thin Labor Day session, Reuters had it about 0.8% higher, above $97. Treat that as an indication, not a cash close. WTI has been hanging in the $92s after Fridayโs $91.48. OPEC+ already told you October stays flat. Ryazan is still a Sunday fire. Three Iranian hulls are still Saturdayโs board.
The flow number that matters: about 10 commodity ships a day through Hormuz over the last 10 days, lowest since May. Before the war, the ditch moved about a fifth of global oil. Chris Wright to CNN: U.S. transits averaging over 9 million barrels a day, and with the pipelines that skip the strait, โprobably two-thirds or moreโ of pre-conflict flows. โThe United States Navy is winning that battle.โ That is the Energy Secretaryโs sentence. The pump is still a Labor Day record $4.14 gas and $5.85 diesel.
Iran spent Monday promising a restricted zone and an Oman corridor. CENTCOM spent Sunday counting 92 redirects. Those two paragraphs belong in the same Tuesday open.
PPI is Wednesday. CPI is Friday. FOMC is Sept. 15โ16. Hike odds after the 162,000 jobs print were about 58% on Fridayโs FedWatch. Oil at $97 is how that print stays sticky.
What this means for you
If you drive home tonight, the holiday traffic and the holiday gallon are the same invoice. If you wait for a screen, Tuesday is when U.S. stocks have to say the word. Not investment advice.
Bottom line: $97 on a day the NYSE is dark. 10 ships a day. Two-thirds, if you believe Wright. Tuesday writes it down.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.
