Good morning. This is the daily post — Friday, September 4. The Fed meeting is in twelve days. The jobs report is in whatever minutes you have left before 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
The tape heading into the number
- Stocks ripped Thursday: Dow +1.2%, S&P +1.1% (best day in about a month, back within 1% of the August record), Nasdaq +1.4%. Magnificent 7 +2.4%.
- 10-year yield eased to about 4.75%. Not a collapse. A pause in the selloff.
- Fed hike odds for September 15–16 dropped from the mid-60s toward a coin flip after Governor Christopher Waller said give disinflation a chance.
- Brent slipped toward $95 in early Friday trade after the mid-$96s. Still a war premium.
- Bitcoin held the $81,000 area overnight, up on the week, a little softer into the print.
- Gold around $4,478.
- Lululemon warned after the bell. Shares were off about 18% overnight. That is today’s ugly stock, jobs or no jobs.
- ISM Services printed 55.4 for August. Prices paid 72.6 — a four-year high. Activity is fine. Inflation in the service sector is not.
- Texas: remnants of Edouard dumped up to about two feet of rain. Rescues. Power out. Not a Wall Street story until it hits gasoline and grocery shelves.
- 8:30 a.m. ET: August nonfarm payrolls. Street is around +56,000 after July’s −23,000. Unemployment expected 4.1%.
One sentence on the war
Vice President JD Vance still will not call it a war. The Joint Maritime Information Center still calls Hormuz risk severe. Oil will trade the second one.
What to do with this page
Use it as a map, not a shopping list. If you only have ten minutes, you now have the same ten facts the desks are arguing about before the number.
Bottom line: Thursday was a speech. Friday is a print. Speeches get rewritten at 8:30.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.
