Four through Hormuz already ran. Forty-five through Bab el-Mandeb already ran. This is the October booking that did not print.
Bloomberg, via The Straits Times, Friday, updated 11:06 p.m. SGT, and MarketWatch’s 4:11 p.m. close: Saudi Aramco told at least two European refining customers they will be allocated no crude in October under long-term agreements after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked, people informed of the decision said. Those people: the decision applies to all European buyers. They asked not to be named because the information is not public. Aramco did not immediately comment, Straits Times said. A source line is not a company statement.
European customers normally lift Saudi crude on term contracts — a steady monthly volume. Those October deliveries will not take place, the people said. International Energy Agency: OECD Europe imported 577,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude in June. Poland’s Orlen SA has already been hunting replacement cargoes, helping lift regional grades. Dated Brent, the European physical benchmark, topped $130 this week at one point. That is not Friday’s $100.30 oil-futures print and not AP’s Brent back above $103.
East-West pipeline: shut last week after a drone attack. Saudi Foreign Ministry, via Meduza’s Bloomberg wrap: the drones were launched from Iraq. A person familiar told Bloomberg on Sept. 16 Aramco is working to partially restart within days and reach full capacity within six weeks. A restart plan is not a barrel in Rotterdam.
Asia is being offered spot cargoes — rare for Aramco — collected just outside Hormuz, a route the company had largely shunned. Those Gulf barrels do not fix Europe. To reach the continent they would have to sail the Red Sea, where Houthi militants have been attacking Saudi ships, or go almost five weeks around Africa. European refiners typically lift at Sidi Kerir on Egypt’s Mediterranean, fed from the Red Sea by pipeline. Morning already had four Hormuz commodity ships vs about 16. Midday already had Windward 45 and OCHA’s 8 killed. We will not reprint Taif, Kahbub, Dhubab, or Oman talks as first-day news.
What this means for you
If you needed Thursday’s traffic count, that file exists. If you needed October’s European term, the tape is zero. If the ships sit too heavy, 988. Not investment advice.
Bottom line: October Europe: no term crude. Pipeline still down. Red Sea still the long way. Not 45. Not 4.
GLHR NEWS explains the news. Not investment, tax, or trading advice. Do your own work before you act.
